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Oral

Position: Probabilistic Modelling is Sufficient for Causal Inference

Bruno Mlodozeniec · David Krueger · Richard E Turner

West Ballroom A
[ ] [ Visit Oral 1B Positions: Better Ways to Do Machine Learning ]
Tue 15 Jul 10:45 a.m. — 11 a.m. PDT

Abstract:

Causal inference is a key research area in machine learning, yet confusion reigns over the tools needed to tackle it. There are prevalent claims in the machine learning literature that you need a bespoke causal framework or notation to answer causal questions. In this paper, we make it clear that you can answer any causal inference question within the realm of probabilistic modelling and inference, without causal-specific tools or notation. Through concrete examples, we demonstrate how causal questions can be tackled by writing down the probability of everything. We argue for the advantages of the generality of the probabilistic modelling lens, when compared to bespoke causal frameworks. Lastly, we reinterpret causal tools as emerging from standard probabilistic modelling and inference, elucidating their necessity and utility.

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