We obtain an analytic, interpretable and predictive theory of creativity in convolutional diffusion models. Indeed, score-matching diffusion models can generate highly original images that lie far from their training data. However, optimal score-matching theory suggests that these models should only be able to produce memorized training examples. To reconcile this theory-experiment gap, we identify two simple inductive biases, locality and equivariance, that: (1) induce a form of combinatorial creativity by preventing optimal score-matching; (2) result in fully analytic, completely mechanistically interpretable, local score (LS) and equivariant local score (ELS) machines that, (3) after calibrating a single time-dependent hyperparameter can quantitatively predict the outputs of trained convolution only diffusion models (like ResNets and UNets) with high accuracy (median $r^2$ of $0.95, 0.94, 0.94, 0.96$ for our top model on CIFAR10, FashionMNIST, MNIST, and CelebA). Our model reveals a {\it locally consistent patch mosaic} mechanism of creativity, in which diffusion models create exponentially many novel images by mixing and matching different local training set patches at different scales and image locations. Our theory also partially predicts the outputs of pre-trained self-attention enabled UNets (median $r^2 \sim 0.77$ on CIFAR10), revealing an intriguing role for attention in carving out semantic coherence from local patch mosaics.

From extracting features to generating text, the outputs of large language models (LLMs) typically rely on their final layers, following the conventional wisdom that earlier layers capture only low-level cues. However, our analysis shows that intermediate layers can encode even richer representations, often improving performance on a wide range of downstream tasks. To explain and quantify these hidden-layer properties, we propose a unified framework of representation quality metrics based on information theory, geometry, and invariance to input perturbations. Our framework highlights how each model layer balances information compression and signal preservation, revealing why mid-depth embeddings can exceed the last layer’s performance. Through extensive experiments on 32 text-embedding tasks across various architectures (transformers, state-space models) and domains (language, vision), we demonstrate that intermediate layers consistently provide stronger features, challenging the standard view on final-layer embeddings and opening new directions on using mid-layer representations for more robust and accurate representations.

Understanding neural network training dynamics at scale is an important open problem. Although realistic model architectures, optimizers, and data interact in complex ways that make predictive theory challenging, we show that compute-optimally trained models exhibit remarkably precise collective regularities. Specifically, loss curves from models of varying sizes collapse onto a single universal curve when training compute and loss are normalized to unity at the end of training. With learning rate decay, discrepancies between normalized curves fall below the noise floor of individual models' loss curves across random seeds, yielding an exceptionally tight collapse we term "supercollapse." We observe supercollapse across learning rate schedules, datasets, and architectures, including transformers trained on next-token prediction. This collapse breaks down when hyperparameters are scaled suboptimally, providing a practical indicator of proper scaling. We explain these phenomena by connecting collapse to the power-law structure in typical neural scaling laws, and analyzing a simple but effective model of SGD noise dynamics that accurately captures how learning rate schedules deform loss curves away from power laws while preserving universality, and why learning rate decay suppresses variance to enable supercollapse.

Neural networks trained to solve modular arithmetic tasks exhibit grokking, a phenomenon where the test accuracy starts improving long after the model achieves 100% training accuracy in the training process. It is often taken as an example of "emergence", where model ability manifests sharply through a phase transition. In this work, we show that the phenomenon of grokking is not specific to neural networks nor to gradient descent-based optimization. Specifically, we show that this phenomenon occurs when learning modular arithmetic with Recursive Feature Machines (RFM), an iterative algorithm that uses the Average Gradient Outer Product (AGOP) to enable task-specific feature learning with general machine learning models. When used in conjunction with kernel machines, iterating RFM results in a fast transition from random, near zero, test accuracy to perfect test accuracy. This transition cannot be predicted from the training loss, which is identically zero, nor from the test loss, which remains constant in initial iterations. Instead, as we show, the transition is completely determined by feature learning: RFM gradually learns block-circulant features to solve modular arithmetic. Paralleling the results for RFM, we show that neural networks that solve modular arithmetic also learn block-circulant features. Furthermore, we present theoretical evidence that RFM uses such block-circulant features to implement the Fourier Multiplication Algorithm, which prior work posited as the generalizing solution neural networks learn on these tasks. Our results demonstrate that emergence can result purely from learning task-relevant features and is not specific to neural architectures nor gradient descent-based optimization methods. Furthermore, our work provides more evidence for AGOP as a key mechanism for feature learning in neural networks.