Coastal communities are at high risk of natural hazards due to unremitting global warming and sea level rise. Both the catastrophic impacts, e.g., tidal flooding and storm surges, and the long-term impacts, e.g., beach erosion, inundation of low lying areas, and saltwater intrusion into aquifers, cause economic, social, and ecological losses. Creating policies through appropriate modeling of the responses of stakeholders€™, such as government, businesses, and residents, to climate change and sea level rise scenarios can help to reduce these losses. In this work, we propose a Markov decision process (MDP) formulation for an agent (government) which interacts with the environment (nature and residents) to deal with the impacts of climate change, in particular sea level rise. Through theoretical analysis we show that a reasonable government's policy on infrastructure development ought to be proactive and based on detected sea levels in order to minimize the expected total cost, as opposed to a straightforward government that reacts to observed costs from nature. We also provide a deep reinforcement learning-based scenario planning tool considering different government and resident types in terms of cooperation, and different sea level rise projections by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Local differential privacy (LDP) is a strong notion of privacy that often leads to a significant drop in utility. The original definition of LDP assumes that all the elements in the data domain are equally sensitive. However, in many real-life applications, some elements are more sensitive than others. We propose a context-aware framework for LDP that allows the privacy level to vary across the data domain, enabling system designers to place privacy constraints where they matter without paying the cost where they do not. For binary data domains, we provide a universally optimal privatization scheme and highlight its connections to Warner’s randomized response and Mangat’s improved response. Motivated by geo-location and web search applications, for k-ary data domains, we consider two special cases of context-aware LDP: block-structured LDP and high-low LDP. We study minimax discrete distribution estimation under both cases and provide communication-efficient, sample-optimal schemes, and information-theoretic lower bounds. We show, using worst-case analyses and experiments on Gowalla’s 3.6 million check-ins to 43,750 locations, that context-aware LDP achieves a far better accuracy under the same number of samples.

Modern machine learning models are often trained on examples with noisy labels that hurt performance and are hard to identify. In this paper, we provide an empirical study showing that a simple $k$-nearest neighbor-based filtering approach on the logit layer of a preliminary model can remove mislabeled training data and produce more accurate models than many recently proposed methods. We also provide new statistical guarantees into its efficacy.

The task of text classification is usually divided into two stages: text feature extraction and classification. In this standard formalization, categories are merely represented as indexes in the label vocabulary, and the model lacks for explicit instructions on what to classify. Inspired by the current trend of formalizing NLP problems as question answering tasks, we propose a new framework for text classification, in which each category label is associated with a category description. Descriptions are generated by hand-crafted templates or using abstractive/extractive models from reinforcement learning. The concatenation of the description and the text is fed to the classifier to decide whether or not the current label should be assigned to the text. The proposed strategy forces the model to attend to the most salient texts with respect to the label, which can be regarded as a hard version of attention, leading to better performances. We observe significant performance boosts over strong baselines on a wide range of text classification tasks including single-label classification, multi-label classification and multi-aspect sentiment analysis.

Evidence-based decision-making entails collecting (costly) observations about an underlying phenomenon of interest, and subsequently committing to an (informed) decision on the basis of accumulated evidence. In this setting, active sensing is the goal-oriented problem of efficiently selecting which acquisitions to make, and when and what decision to settle on. As its complement, inverse active sensing seeks to uncover an agent's preferences and strategy given their observable decision-making behavior. In this paper, we develop an expressive, unified framework for the general setting of evidence-based decision-making under endogenous, context-dependent time pressure---which requires negotiating (subjective) tradeoffs between accuracy, speediness, and cost of information. Using this language, we demonstrate how it enables modeling intuitive notions of surprise, suspense, and optimality in decision strategies (the forward problem). Finally, we illustrate how this formulation enables understanding decision-making behavior by quantifying preferences implicit in observed decision strategies (the inverse problem).

There has been a growing realization of the potential of Bayesian machine learning as a platform that can provide both flexible modeling, accurate predictions as well as coherent uncertainty statements. In particular, Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) have emerged as one of today’s most effective general approaches to predictive modeling under minimal assumptions. Statistical theoretical developments for machine learning have been mostly concerned with approximability or rates of estimation when recovering infinite dimensional objects (curves or densities). Despite the impressive array of available theoretical results, the literature has been largely silent about uncertainty quantification. In this work, we continue the theoretical investigation of BART initiated recently by Rockova and van der Pas (2017). We focus on statistical inference questions. In particular, we study the Bernstein-von Mises (BvM) phenomenon (i.e. asymptotic normality) for smooth linear functionals of the regression surface within the framework of non-parametric regression with fixed covariates. Our semi-parametric BvM results show that, beyond rate-optimal estimation, BART can be also used for valid statistical inference.

Stochastic particle-optimization sampling (SPOS) is a recently-developed scalable Bayesian sampling framework unifying stochastic gradient MCMC (SG-MCMC) and Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) algorithms based on Wasserstein gradient flows. With a rigorous non-asymptotic convergence theory developed, SPOS can avoid the particle-collapsing pitfall of SVGD. However, the variance-reduction effect in SPOS has not been clear. In this paper, we address this gap by presenting several variance-reduction techniques for SPOS. Specifically, we propose three variants of variance-reduced SPOS, called SAGA particle-optimization sampling (SAGA-POS), SVRG particle-optimization sampling (SVRG-POS) and a variant of SVRG-POS which avoids full gradient computations, denoted as SVRG-POS$^+$. Importantly, we provide non-asymptotic convergence guarantees for these algorithms in terms of the 2-Wasserstein metric and analyze their complexities. The results show our algorithms yield better convergence rates than existing variance-reduced variants of stochastic Langevin dynamics, though more space is required to store the particles in training. Our theory aligns well with experimental results on both synthetic and real datasets.

Derivative-free optimization (DFO) has recently gained a lot of momentum in machine learning, spawning interest in the community to design faster methods for problems where gradients are not accessible. While some attention has been given to the concept of acceleration in the DFO literature, existing stochastic algorithms for objective functions with a finite-sum structure have not been shown theoretically to achieve an accelerated rate of convergence. Algorithms that use acceleration in such a setting are prone to instabilities, making it difficult to reach convergence. In this work, we exploit the finite-sum structure of the objective in order to design a variance-reduced DFO algorithm that provably yields acceleration. We prove rates of convergence for both smooth convex and strongly-convex finite-sum objective functions. Finally, we validate our theoretical results empirically on several tasks and datasets.

Domain shift is a fundamental problem in visual recognition which typically arises when the source and target data follow different distributions. The existing domain adaptation approaches which tackle this problem work in the "closed-set" setting with the assumption that the source and the target data share exactly the same classes of objects. In this paper, we tackle a more realistic problem of the "open-set" domain shift where the target data contains additional classes that were not present in the source data. More specifically, we introduce an end-to-end Progressive Graph Learning (PGL) framework where a graph neural network with episodic training is integrated to suppress underlying conditional shift and adversarial learning is adopted to close the gap between the source and target distributions. Compared to the existing open-set adaptation approaches, our approach guarantees to achieve a tighter upper bound of the target error. Extensive experiments on three standard open-set benchmarks evidence that our approach significantly outperforms the state-of-the-arts in open-set domain adaptation.

Label distribution covers a certain number of labels, representing the degree to which each label describes the instance. The learning process on the instances labeled by label distributions is called label distribution learning (LDL). Unfortunately, many training sets only contain simple logical labels rather than label distributions due to the difficulty of obtaining the label distributions directly. To solve this problem, we consider the label distributions as the latent vectors and infer the label distributions from the logical labels in the training datasets by using variational inference. After that, we induce a predictive model to train the label distribution data by employing the multi-output regression technique. The recovery experiment on thirteen real-world LDL datasets and the predictive experiment on ten multi-label learning datasets validate the advantage of our approach over the state-of-the-art approaches.

The way that people make choices or exhibit preferences can be strongly affected by the set of available alternatives, often called the choice set. Furthermore, there are usually heterogeneous preferences, either at an individual level within small groups or within sub-populations of large groups. Given the availability of choice data, there are now many models that capture this behavior in order to make effective predictions---however, there is little work in understanding how directly changing the choice set can be used to influence the preferences of a collection of decision-makers. Here, we use discrete choice modeling to develop an optimization framework of such interventions for several problems of group influence, namely maximizing agreement or disagreement and promoting a particular choice. We show that these problems are NP-hard in general, but imposing restrictions reveals a fundamental boundary: promoting a choice can be easier than encouraging consensus or sowing discord. We design approximation algorithms for the hard problems and show that they work well on real-world choice data.

Disentangled generative models map a latent code vector to a target space, while enforcing that a subset of the learned latent codes are interpretable and associated with distinct properties of the target distribution. Recent advances have been dominated by Variational AutoEncoder (VAE)-based methods, while training disentangled generative adversarial networks (GANs) remains challenging. In this work, we show that the dominant challenges facing disentangled GANs can be mitigated through the use of self-supervision. We make two main contributions: first, we design a novel approach for training disentangled GANs with self-supervision. We propose contrastive regularizer, which is inspired by a natural notion of disentanglement: latent traversal. This achieves higher disentanglement scores than state-of-the-art VAE- and GAN-based approaches. Second, we propose an unsupervised model selection scheme called ModelCentrality, which uses generated synthetic samples to compute the medoid (multi-dimensional generalization of median) of a collection of models. Perhaps surprisingly, this unsupervised ModelCentrality is able to select a model that outperforms those trained with existing supervised hyper-parameter selection techniques. Combining contrastive regularization with ModelCentrality, we obtain state-of-the-art disentanglement scores by a substantial margin, without requiring supervised hyper-parameter selection.

We study the effect of norm based regularization on the size of coresets for regression problems. Specifically, given a matrix $ \mathbf{A} \in {\mathbb{R}}^{n \times d}$ with $n\gg d$ and a vector $\mathbf{b} \in \mathbb{R} ^ n $ and $\lambda > 0$, we analyze the size of coresets for regularized versions of regression of the form $\|\mathbf{Ax}-\mathbf{b}\|_p^r + \lambda\|{\mathbf{x}}\|_q^s$. Prior work has shown that for ridge regression (where $p,q,r,s=2$) we can obtain a coreset that is smaller than the coreset for the unregularized counterpart i.e. least squares regression~\cite{avron2017sharper}. We show that when $r \neq s$, no coreset for regularized regression can have size smaller than the optimal coreset of the unregularized version. The well known lasso problem falls under this category and hence does not allow a coreset smaller than the one for least squares regression. We propose a modified version of the lasso problem and obtain for it a coreset of size smaller than the least square regression. We empirically show that the modified version of lasso also induces sparsity in solution, similar to the original lasso. We also obtain smaller coresets for $\ell_p$ regression with $\ell_p$ regularization. We extend our methods to multi response regularized regression. Finally, we empirically demonstrate the coreset performance for the modified lasso and the $\ell_1$ regression with $\ell_1$ regularization.

Large neural models have demonstrated human-level performance on language and vision benchmarks, while their performance degrades considerably on adversarial or out-of-distribution samples. This raises the question of whether these models have learned to solve a dataset rather than the underlying task by overfitting to spurious dataset biases. We investigate one recently proposed approach, AFLITE, which adversarially filters such dataset biases, as a means to mitigate the prevalent overestimation of machine performance. We provide a theoretical understanding for AFLITE, by situating it in the generalized framework for optimum bias reduction. We present extensive supporting evidence that AFLITE is broadly applicable for reduction of measurable dataset biases, and that models trained on the filtered datasets yield better generalization to out-of-distribution tasks. Finally, filtering results in a large drop in model performance (e.g., from 92% to 62% for SNLI), while human performance still remains high. Our work thus shows that such filtered datasets can pose new research challenges for robust generalization by serving as upgraded benchmarks.

Recent work has shown that topological enhancements to recurrent neural networks (RNNs) can increase their expressiveness and representational capacity. Two popular enhancements are stacked RNNs, which increases the capacity for learning non-linear functions, and bidirectional processing, which exploits acausal information in a sequence. In this work, we explore the delayed-RNN, which is a single-layer RNN that has a delay between the input and output. We prove that a weight-constrained version of the delayed-RNN is equivalent to a stacked-RNN. We also show that the delay gives rise to partial acausality, much like bidirectional networks. Synthetic experiments confirm that the delayed-RNN can mimic bidirectional networks, solving some acausal tasks similarly, and outperforming them in others. Moreover, we show similar performance to bidirectional networks in a real-world natural language processing task. These results suggest that delayed-RNNs can approximate topologies including stacked RNNs, bidirectional RNNs, and stacked bidirectional RNNs -- but with equivalent or faster runtimes for the delayed-RNNs.

In this paper, we study the leading eigenvector problem in a statistically distributed setting and propose a communication-efficient algorithm based on Riemannian optimization, which trades local computation for global communication. Theoretical analysis shows that the proposed algorithm linearly converges to the centralized empirical risk minimization solution regarding the number of communication rounds. When the number of data points in local machines is sufficiently large, the proposed algorithm achieves a significant reduction of communication cost over existing distributed PCA algorithms. Superior performance in terms of communication cost of the proposed algorithm is verified on real-world and synthetic datasets.

We initiate the study of coresets for clustering in graph metrics, i.e., the shortest-path metric of edge-weighted graphs. Such clustering problems are essential to data analysis and used for example in road networks and data visualization. A coreset is a compact summary of the data that approximately preserves the clustering objective for every possible center set, and it offers significant efficiency improvements in terms of running time, storage, and communication, including in streaming and distributed settings. Our main result is a near-linear time construction of a coreset for k-Median in a general graph $G$, with size $O_{\epsilon, k}(\mathrm{tw}(G))$ where $\mathrm{tw}(G)$ is the treewidth of $G$, and we complement the construction with a nearly-tight size lower bound. The construction is based on the framework of Feldman and Langberg [STOC 2011], and our main technical contribution, as required by this framework, is a uniform bound of $O(\mathrm{tw}(G))$ on the shattering dimension under any point weights. We validate our coreset on real-world road networks, and our scalable algorithm constructs tiny coresets with high accuracy, which translates to a massive speedup of existing approximation algorithms such as local search for graph k-Median.

Adversarial examples are malicious inputs crafted to induce misclassification. Commonly studied \emph{sensitivity-based} adversarial examples introduce semantically-small changes to an input that result in a different model prediction. This paper studies a complementary failure mode, \emph{invariance-based} adversarial examples, that introduce minimal semantic changes that modify an input's true label yet preserve the model's prediction. We demonstrate fundamental tradeoffs between these two types of adversarial examples. We show that defenses against sensitivity-based attacks actively harm a model's accuracy on invariance-based attacks, and that new approaches are needed to resist both attack types. In particular, we break state-of-the-art adversarially-trained and \emph{certifiably-robust} models by generating small perturbations that the models are (provably) robust to, yet that change an input's class according to human labelers. Finally, we formally show that the existence of excessively invariant classifiers arises from the presence of \emph{overly-robust} predictive features in standard datasets.

In this paper, we present a novel and principled approach to learn the optimal transport between two distributions, from samples. Guided by the optimal transport theory, we learn the optimal Kantorovich potential which induces the optimal transport map. This involves learning two convex functions, by solving a novel minimax optimization. Building upon recent advances in the field of input convex neural networks, we propose a new framework to estimate the optimal transport mapping as the gradient of a convex function that is trained via minimax optimization. Numerical experiments confirm the accuracy of the learned transport map. Our approach can be readily used to train a deep generative model. When trained between a simple distribution in the latent space and a target distribution, the learned optimal transport map acts as a deep generative model. Although scaling this to a large dataset is challenging, we demonstrate two important strengths over standard adversarial training: robustness and discontinuity. As we seek the optimal transport, the learned generative model provides the same mapping regardless of how we initialize the neural networks. Further, a gradient of a neural network can easily represent discontinuous mappings, unlike standard neural networks that are constrained to be continuous. This allows the learned transport map to match any target distribution with many discontinuous supports and achieve sharp boundaries.

Recent works have empirically shown that there exist adversarial examples that can be hidden from neural network interpretability (namely, making network interpretation maps visually similar), or interpretability is itself susceptible to adversarial attacks. In this paper, we theoretically show that with a proper measurement of interpretation, it is actually difficult to prevent prediction-evasion adversarial attacks from causing interpretation discrepancy, as confirmed by experiments on MNIST, CIFAR-10 and Restricted ImageNet. Spurred by that, we develop an interpretability-aware defensive scheme built only on promoting robust interpretation (without the need for resorting to adversarial loss minimization). We show that our defense achieves both robust classification and robust interpretation, outperforming state-of-the-art adversarial training methods against attacks of large perturbation in particular.

Tensor factorization is a fundamental framework to analyze high-order interactions in data. Despite the success of the existing methods, the valuable temporal information are severely underused. The timestamps of the interactions are either ignored or discretized into crude steps. The recent work although formulates event-tensors to keep the timestamps in factorization and can capture mutual excitation effects among the interaction events, it overlooks another important type of temporal influence, inhibition. In addition, it uses a local window to exclude all the long-term dependencies. To overcome these limitations, we propose a self-modulating nonparametric Bayesian factorization model. We use the latent factors to construct mutually governed, general random point processes, which can capture various short-term/long-term, excitation/inhibition effects, so as to encode the complex temporal dependencies into factor representations. In addition, our model couples with a latent Gaussian process to estimate and fuse nonlinear yet static relationships between the entities. For efficient inference, we derive a fully decomposed model evidence lower bound to dispense with the huge kernel matrix and costly summations inside the rate and log rate functions. We then develop an efficient stochastic optimization algorithm. We show the advantage of our method in four real-world applications.

The input to the \emph{sets-$k$-means} problem is an integer $k\geq 1$ and a set $\mathcal{P}=\{P_1,\cdots,P_n\}$ of fixed sized sets in $\mathbb{R}^d$. The goal is to compute a set $C$ of $k$ centers (points) in $\mathbb{R}^d$ that minimizes the sum $\sum_{P\in \mathcal{P}} \min_{p\in P, c\in C}\left\| p-c \right\|^2$ of squared distances to these sets. An \emph{$\varepsilon$-core-set} for this problem is a weighted subset of $\mathcal{P}$ that approximates this sum up to $1\pm\varepsilon$ factor, for \emph{every} set $C$ of $k$ centers in $\mathbb{R}^d$. We prove that such a core-set of $O(\log^2{n})$ sets always exists, and can be computed in $O(n\log{n})$ time, for every input $\mathcal{P}$ and every fixed $d,k\geq 1$ and $\varepsilon \in (0,1)$. The result easily generalized for any metric space, distances to the power of $z>0$, and M-estimators that handle outliers. Applying an inefficient but optimal algorithm on this coreset allows us to obtain the first PTAS ($1+\varepsilon$ approximation) for the sets-$k$-means problem that takes time near linear in $n$. This is the first result even for sets-mean on the plane ($k=1$, $d=2$). Open source code and experimental results for document classification and facility locations are also provided.

Graph matching, also known as network alignment, aims at recovering the latent vertex correspondence between two unlabeled, edge-correlated weighted graphs. To tackle this task, we propose a spectral method, GRAph Matching by Pairwise eigen-Alignments (GRAMPA), which first constructs a similarity matrix as a weighted sum of outer products between all pairs of eigenvectors of the two graphs, and then outputs a matching by a simple rounding procedure. For a universality class of correlated Wigner models, GRAMPA achieves exact recovery of the latent matching between two graphs with edge correlation $1 - 1/\mathrm{polylog}(n)$ and average degree at least $\mathrm{polylog}(n)$. This matches the state-of-the-art guarantees for polynomial-time algorithms established for correlated Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi graphs, and significantly improves over existing spectral methods. The superiority of GRAMPA is also demonstrated on a variety of synthetic and real datasets, in terms of both statistical accuracy and computational efficiency.

In narrow asymptotic settings Gaussian VAE models of continuous data have been shown to possess global optima aligned with ground-truth distributions. Even so, it is well known that poor solutions whereby the latent posterior collapses to an uninformative prior are sometimes obtained in practice. However, contrary to conventional wisdom that largely assigns blame for this phenomena on the undue influence of KL-divergence regularization, we will argue that posterior collapse is, at least in part, a direct consequence of bad local minima inherent to the loss surface of deep autoencoder networks. In particular, we prove that even small nonlinear perturbations of affine VAE decoder models can produce such minima, and in deeper models, analogous minima can force the VAE to behave like an aggressive truncation operator, provably discarding information along all latent dimensions in certain circumstances. Regardless, the underlying message here is not meant to undercut valuable existing explanations of posterior collapse, but rather, to refine the discussion and elucidate alternative risk factors that may have been previously underappreciated.

Machine learning systems must adapt to data distributions that evolve over time, in applications ranging from sensor networks and self-driving car perception modules to brain-machine interfaces. Traditional domain adaptation is only guaranteed to work when the distribution shift is small; empirical methods combine several heuristics for larger shifts but can be dataset specific. To adapt to larger shifts we consider gradual domain adaptation, where the goal is to adapt an initial classifier trained on a source domain given only unlabeled data that shifts gradually in distribution towards a target domain. We prove the first non-vacuous upper bound on the error of self-training with gradual shifts, under settings where directly adapting to the target domain can result in unbounded error. The theoretical analysis leads to algorithmic insights, highlighting that regularization and label sharpening are essential even when we have infinite data. Leveraging the gradual shift structure leads to higher accuracies on a rotating MNIST dataset, a forest Cover Type dataset, and a realistic Portraits dataset.

Off-policy evaluation plays an important role in modern reinforcement learning. However, most existing off-policy evaluation algorithms focus on point estimation, without providing an account- able confidence interval, that can reflect the uncertainty caused by limited observed data and algorithmic errors. In this work, we propose a new optimization-based framework, which can find a feasible set that contains the true value function with high probability, by leveraging the statistical properties of the recent proposed kernel Bellman loss (Feng et al., 2019). We further utilize the feasible set to construct accountable confidence intervals for off-policy evaluations, and propose a post-hoc diagnosis for existing estimators. Empirical results show that our methods yield tight yet accountable confidence intervals in different settings, which demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

We study the heavy-tailed stochastic bandit problem in the cooperative multi-agent setting, where a group of agents interact with a common bandit problem, while communicating on a network with delays. Existing algorithms for the stochastic bandit in this setting utilize confidence intervals arising from an averaging-based communication protocol known as running consensus, that does not lend itself to robust estimation for heavy-tailed settings. We propose MP-UCB, a decentralized multi-agent algorithm for the cooperative stochastic bandit that incorporates robust estimation with a message-passing protocol. We prove optimal regret bounds for MP-UCB for several problem settings, and also demonstrate its superiority to existing methods. Furthermore, we establish the first lower bounds for the cooperative bandit problem, in addition to providing efficient algorithms for robust bandit estimation of location.

We consider online allocation problems with concave revenue functions and resource constraints, which are central problems in revenue management and online advertising. In these settings, requests arrive sequentially during a finite horizon and, for each request, a decision maker needs to choose an action that consumes a certain amount of resources and generates revenue. The revenue function and resource consumption of each request are drawn independently and at random from a probability distribution that is unknown to the decision maker. The objective is to maximize cumulative revenues subject to a constraint on the total consumption of resources.

We design a general class of algorithms that achieve sub-linear expected regret compared to the hindsight optimal allocation. Our algorithms operate in the Lagrangian dual space: they maintain a dual multiplier for each resource that is updated using online mirror descent. By choosing the reference function accordingly, we recover dual sub-gradient descent and dual exponential weights algorithm. The resulting algorithms are simple, efficient, and shown to attain the optimal order of regret when the length of the horizon and the initial number of resources are scaled proportionally. We discuss applications to online bidding in repeated auctions with budget constraints and online proportional matching with high entropy.

Deep neural networks have achieved great success in various areas, but recent works have found that neural networks are vulnerable to adversarial attacks, which leads to a hot topic nowadays. Although many approaches have been proposed to enhance the robustness of neural networks, few of them explored robust architectures for neural networks. On this account, we try to address such an issue from the perspective of dynamic system in this work. By viewing ResNet as an explicit Euler discretization of an ordinary differential equation~(ODE), for the first time, we find that the adversarial robustness of ResNet is connected to the numerical stability of the corresponding dynamic system, i.e., more stable numerical schemes may correspond to more robust deep networks. Furthermore, inspired by the implicit Euler method for solving numerical ODE problems, we propose Implicit Euler skip connections~(IE-Skips) by modifying the original skip connection in ResNet or its variants. Then we theoretically prove its advantages under the adversarial attack and the experimental results show that our ResNet with IE-Skips can largely improve the robustness and the generalization ability under adversarial attacks when compared with the vanilla ResNet of the same parameter size.

Phase I dose-finding trials are increasingly challenging as the relationship between efficacy and toxicity of new compounds (or combination of them) becomes more complex. Despite this, most commonly used methods in practice focus on identifying a Maximum Tolerated Dose (MTD) by learning only from toxicity events. We present a novel adaptive clinical trial methodology, called Safe Efficacy Exploration Dose Allocation (SEEDA), that aims at maximizing the cumulative efficacies while satisfying the toxicity safety constraint with high probability. We evaluate performance objectives that have operational meanings in practical clinical trials, including cumulative efficacy, recommendation/allocation success probabilities, toxicity violation probability, and sample efficiency. An extended SEEDA-Plateau algorithm that is tailored for the increase-then-plateau efficacy behavior of molecularly targeted agents (MTA) is also presented. Through numerical experiments using both synthetic and real-world datasets, we show that SEEDA outperforms state-of-the-art clinical trial designs by finding the optimal dose with higher success rate and fewer patients.

We introduce Procgen Benchmark, a suite of 16 procedurally generated game-like environments designed to benchmark both sample efficiency and generalization in reinforcement learning. We believe that the community will benefit from increased access to high quality training environments, and we provide detailed experimental protocols for using this benchmark. We empirically demonstrate that diverse environment distributions are essential to adequately train and evaluate RL agents, thereby motivating the extensive use of procedural content generation. We then use this benchmark to investigate the effects of scaling model size, finding that larger models significantly improve both sample efficiency and generalization.

The top-$k$ error is often employed to evaluate performance for challenging classification tasks in computer vision as it is designed to compensate for ambiguity in ground truth labels. This practical success motivates our theoretical analysis of consistent top-$k$ classification. To this end, we provide a characterization of Bayes optimality by defining a top-$k$ preserving property, which is new and fixes a non-uniqueness gap in prior work. Then, we define top-$k$ calibration and show it is necessary and sufficient for consistency. Based on the top-$k$ calibration analysis, we propose a rich class of top-$k$ calibrated Bregman divergence surrogates. Our analysis continues by showing previously proposed hinge-like top-$k$ surrogate losses are not top-$k$ calibrated and thus inconsistent. On the other hand, we propose two new hinge-like losses, one which is similarly inconsistent, and one which is consistent. Our empirical results highlight theoretical claims, confirming our analysis of the consistency of these losses.

Maximum selection under probabilistic queries \emph{(probabilistic maximization)} is a fundamental algorithmic problem arising in numerous theoretical and practical contexts. We derive the first query-optimal sequential algorithm for probabilistic-maximization. Departing from previous assumptions, the algorithm and performance guarantees apply even for infinitely many items, hence in particular do not require a-priori knowledge of the number of items. The algorithm has linear query complexity, and is optimal also in the streaming setting.

To derive these results we consider a probabilistic setting where several candidates for a position are asked multiple questions with the goal of finding who has the highest probability of answering interview questions correctly. Previous work minimized the total number of questions asked by alternating back and forth between the best performing candidates, in a sense, inviting them to multiple interviews. We show that the same order-wise selection accuracy can be achieved by querying the candidates sequentially, never returning to a previously queried candidate. Hence one interview is enough!

The current paradigm of deep neural networks has been successful in part due to the use of normalization layers. Normalization layers like Batch Normalization, Layer Normalization and Weight Normalization are ubiquitous in practice as they improve the generalization performance and training speed of neural networks significantly. Nonetheless, the vast majority of current deep learning theory and non-convex optimization literature focuses on the un-normalized setting. We bridge this gap by providing the first global convergence result for 2 layer non-linear neural networks with ReLU activations trained with a normalization layer, namely Weight Normalization. The analysis shows how the introduction of normalization layers changes the optimization landscape and in some settings enables faster convergence as compared with un-normalized neural networks.

Uncertainty quantification is a fundamental yet unsolved problem for deep learning. The Bayesian framework provides a principled way of uncertainty estimation but is often not scalable to modern deep neural nets (DNNs) that have a large number of parameters. Non-Bayesian methods are simple to implement but often conflate different sources of uncertainties and require huge computing resources. We propose a new method for quantifying uncertainties of DNNs from a dynamical system perspective. The core of our method is to view DNN transformations as state evolution of a stochastic dynamical system and introduce a Brownian motion term for capturing epistemic uncertainty. Based on this perspective, we propose a neural stochastic differential equation model (SDE-Net) which consists of (1) a drift net that controls the system to fit the predictive function; and (2) a diffusion net that captures epistemic uncertainty. We theoretically analyze the existence and uniqueness of the solution to SDE-Net. Our experiments demonstrate that the SDE-Net model can outperform existing uncertainty estimation methods across a series of tasks where uncertainty plays a fundamental role.